The Next Pandemic

The H5N1 bird-flu virus is freaking out the World Health Organisation's flu expert, who says the world is ripe for a pandemic.

The last three pandemics happened in the 20th century: 1918, 1957 and 1968.

1918-19: Spanish flu, influenza A(H1N1), caused the highest number of known flu deaths: between 20 to 50 million died worldwide. Many died within the first few days. Others died of complications soon afterwards.

1957-58: Asian flu, influenza A(H2N2), caused about 70,000 deaths in the United States. It was identified in late February, 1957 in China and had spread to the US by June that same year.

1968-69: Hong Kong flu, influenza A(H3N2), caused about 34,000 deaths in the United States and 700,000 worldwide. The virus was detected in Hong Kong in early 1968 and spread to the US later that year. At the height of the flu, 10 per cent of the population in Hong Kong (about 390,000) was infected between July and August 1968. Twenty-seven died. A(H3N2) virus still circulates today.

The bird flu that surfaced in May, 1997 was the first strain that crossed the "species barrier", through birds instead of a host such as swine. When people began dying, the Hong Kong government slaughtered 1.4 million chickens and other poultry, including ducks and geese.

The drastic control measure worked; no one has been infected since 1998. A surveillance system is able to spot "precursors" of the H5N1 virus before the strain has a chance to mutate into the deadly human form. This is important because were a large number of human beings ever to become infected, the virus would have the chance to mutate and become airborne.

Should H5N1 ever reach this stage, the world will be screwed.

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